Prediction of construction material prices using ARIMA and multiple regression models

نویسندگان

چکیده

Construction material prices (CMP) variations have become a major issue in properly budgeting construction projects. Inability to accurately forecast CMP volatility can also lead price overestimation or underestimation. Enhancing the accuracy of predictions enhance total costs. The purpose this study is present model for predicting that assist decision-makers make better decisions over life cycle project. records namely; steel, cement, brick, ceramic, and gravel, indicators affecting them Egypt were used prediction procedures. practical methods using Box-Jenkins approach Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) time series multiple regression models forecasting building are outlined research. Out-of-sample evaluate provided model’s performance future prices. compared according Mean Absolute Percentage Errors (MAPE). generated show good results month-to-month prices, with MAPE ranging from 1.4 2.8 percent selected models. This research both owners contractors improving their processes, preparing more accurate cost estimates.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Asian Journal of Civil Engineering

سال: 2023

ISSN: ['2522-011X', '1563-0854']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s42107-023-00597-2